By Younger Partners Research Director Steve Triolet
It’s not really new that office sublease space across the US has been rising rapidly over the past 6 months. Dallas, like many markets, are seeing all-time highs. Currently, DFW has just under 9.3 million square feet available with some larger blocks likely to hit the market before year-end (Pioneer Natural Resources, for example, will place 400 to 600K of its headquarters’ space on the market soon). Current estimates point to sublease space surpassing 10 million square feet before the end of the year. That’s a big number, but what does that translate to? I took a historic look at how much sublease space was absorbed on a yearly basis. Typically, there is a little more than 5 million square feet of sublease available and a little more than half of that is absorbed (2.8 million square feet). The other remaining half does not lease and eventually hits the market as direct vacant space (once the master lease gets to a 2-year term or less).
Below you can see these numbers in chart form, along with a pie chart showing the four submarkets that have the highest concentration of sublease space (Far North Dallas, Las Colinas, Dallas CBD and Richardson/Plano).
Dallas/Fort Worth is in a construction boom: between 2015 and 2018 almost 23 million square feet of new office inventory was completed with an additional 7.1 million square feet currently underway, says Younger Partners Director of Research Steve Triolet.
All of these numbers are among the highest in the United States for the respective time periods. With a few notable exceptions (Toyota), the vast majority of the tenants taking occupancy of the new space are leaving behind older Class-A space that will need to be backfilled. Class-A space makes up the vast majority of the space available at 20.7 million square feet or 73% of the large blocks of space.